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Co-hosted by USA 🇺🇸, Mexico 🇲🇽 & Canada 🇨🇦. A host nation playing in its own country gets the home-advantage boost; every other match is treated as neutral. Click an upcoming match to see its pre-match odds above; games on now show a 🔴 LIVE marker and open in the Live tab.
Win expectancy. With Elo difference d = EloA − EloB + homeAdvantage, team A's
expected result is We = 1 / (1 + 10−d/400) — the standard World
Football Elo formula. This is an expected points fraction (win = 1, draw = ½, loss = 0).
Splitting into win / draw / loss. Draws are most likely when teams are evenly matched, so draw
probability follows a bell curve in d:
P(draw) = D₀·e−d²/(2σ²) with D₀ = 0.29, σ = 350 (typical for international
football). Then P(A win) = We − P(draw)/2 and
P(B win) = 1 − We − P(draw)/2.
Fair odds are simply 1 / probability (no bookmaker margin).
Home advantage defaults to 100 Elo, the standard convention for international football. Set the venue to Neutral for tournament neutral-ground matches. All of the above are pre-match estimates.
Live (in-play) odds. The live tab models goals as independent Poisson events. Each team's full-match expected goals come from the Elo gap (≈200 Elo ≈ one goal of supremacy, ~2.6 total goals), scaled to the minutes remaining and added to the current score, then summed over every possible remaining scoreline. Because it's a goal-based model, kickoff values can differ slightly from the pre-match panel. It assumes a steady scoring rate and doesn't know about red cards, injuries or game state.
Match probabilities from World Football Elo ratings — your all-in-one place for soccer fixtures, live standings, a World Cup archive, match replays, 244 national team pages, and sandbox hypothetical odds. About FutbolRanks.com →
Ratings snapshot based on World Football Elo ratings. Estimates only — football is delightfully unpredictable.
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