South Korea holds a World Football Elo rating of 1786, ranking #26 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, South Korea is drawn in Group A, facing Czechia, Mexico and South Africa. The tables below estimate South Korea's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.
Match probabilities from World Football Elo ratings
Our fair odds above carry no bookmaker margin. If a sportsbook lists higher odds than our number for the same outcome, that side may be value. Links below are affiliate links — we may earn a commission. This is not betting advice.
21+ (US) / 18+ where applicable. Betting carries financial risk and is restricted by age and location. Please gamble responsibly. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Co-hosted by USA 🇺🇸, Mexico 🇲🇽 & Canada 🇨🇦. A host nation playing in its own country gets the home-advantage boost; every other match is treated as neutral. Click an upcoming match to see its pre-match odds above; games on now show a 🔴 LIVE marker and open in the Live tab.
Win expectancy. With Elo difference d = EloA − EloB + homeAdvantage, team A's
expected result is We = 1 / (1 + 10−d/400) — the standard World
Football Elo formula. This is an expected points fraction (win = 1, draw = ½, loss = 0).
Splitting into win / draw / loss. Draws are most likely when teams are evenly matched, so draw
probability follows a bell curve in d:
P(draw) = D₀·e−d²/(2σ²) with D₀ = 0.29, σ = 350 (typical for international
football). Then P(A win) = We − P(draw)/2 and
P(B win) = 1 − We − P(draw)/2.
Fair odds are simply 1 / probability (no bookmaker margin).
Home advantage defaults to 100 Elo, the standard convention for international football. Set the venue to Neutral for tournament neutral-ground matches. All of the above are pre-match estimates.
Live (in-play) odds. The live tab models goals as independent Poisson events. Each team's full-match expected goals come from the Elo gap (≈200 Elo ≈ one goal of supremacy, ~2.6 total goals), scaled to the minutes remaining and added to the current score, then summed over every possible remaining scoreline. Because it's a goal-based model, kickoff values can differ slightly from the pre-match panel. It assumes a steady scoring rate and doesn't know about red cards, injuries or game state.
Ratings snapshot based on World Football Elo ratings. Estimates only — football is delightfully unpredictable.
How it works · Privacy & cookies · Affiliate disclosure
Browse all 244 national team pages (A–Z)
For entertainment only — not betting advice. 21+/18+. Gamble responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA or any official governing body. Ratings are independent World Football Elo estimates.
We use cookies for advertising and to remember your preferences. You can accept personalized ads or decline. See our Privacy Policy.