Tonga

Tonga holds a World Football Elo rating of 520, ranking #239 of 244 national teams — among the lower-ranked national teams. Tonga is not among the 48 teams at the 2026 World Cup. The tables below estimate Tonga's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Tonga vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Argentina	2115	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
France	2063	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
England	2024	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Portugal	1989	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Colombia	1982	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Brazil	1978	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Netherlands	1944	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Germany	1939	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Norway	1914	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Croatia	1912	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Japan	1910	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Tonga vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Tonga in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Brunei	572	28.2%	28.7%	43.1%
Falkland Islands	571	28.4%	28.7%	42.9%
FS Micronesia	564	29.3%	28.8%	41.9%
Marshall Islands	559	30.0%	28.8%	41.2%
Kiribati	544	32.1%	28.9%	39.0%
Niue	496	39.0%	28.9%	32.1%
Northern Mariana Islands	432	48.4%	28.1%	23.6%
Cocos Islands	422	49.8%	27.9%	22.3%
Palau	402	52.7%	27.4%	19.9%
Eastern Samoa	369	57.2%	26.4%	16.3%