Australia

Australia holds a World Football Elo rating of 1839, ranking #23 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, Australia is drawn in Group D, facing Turkey, United States and Paraguay. The tables below estimate Australia's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Australia at the 2026 World Cup

Group D fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-13	Turkey	34.1%	29.0%	36.9%	Vancouver (neutral)
06-19	United States	29.7%	28.8%	41.5%	Seattle (United States home)
06-25	Paraguay	44.1%	28.6%	27.3%	San Francisco (neutral)

Australia vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	5.6%	20.6%	73.9%
Argentina	2115	6.3%	21.3%	72.4%
France	2063	9.8%	23.6%	66.6%
England	2024	13.0%	25.2%	61.8%
Portugal	1989	16.4%	26.5%	57.1%
Colombia	1982	17.2%	26.7%	56.2%
Brazil	1978	17.6%	26.8%	55.6%
Netherlands	1944	21.5%	27.7%	50.8%
Germany	1939	22.1%	27.8%	50.1%
Norway	1914	25.2%	28.3%	46.5%
Croatia	1912	25.5%	28.4%	46.2%
Japan	1910	25.7%	28.4%	45.9%

Australia vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Australia in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Italy	1869	31.2%	28.9%	39.9%
Switzerland	1865	31.8%	28.9%	39.3%
Senegal	1860	32.5%	28.9%	38.5%
Turkey	1849	34.1%	29.0%	36.9%
Morocco	1840	35.4%	29.0%	35.6%
Austria	1830	36.8%	29.0%	34.2%
Scotland	1794	42.1%	28.8%	29.2%
South Korea	1786	43.2%	28.7%	28.1%
Paraguay	1780	44.1%	28.6%	27.3%
Ukraine	1780	44.1%	28.6%	27.3%