Turkey

Turkey holds a World Football Elo rating of 1849, ranking #21 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, Turkey is drawn in Group D, facing Australia, Paraguay and United States. The tables below estimate Turkey's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Turkey at the 2026 World Cup

Group D fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-13	Australia	36.9%	29.0%	34.1%	Vancouver (neutral)
06-19	Paraguay	45.6%	28.4%	26.0%	San Francisco (neutral)
06-25	United States	31.1%	28.9%	40.0%	Los Angeles (United States home)

Turkey vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	6.1%	21.1%	72.8%
Argentina	2115	6.9%	21.7%	71.4%
France	2063	10.6%	24.1%	65.4%
England	2024	14.0%	25.6%	60.5%
Portugal	1989	17.5%	26.8%	55.7%
Colombia	1982	18.3%	27.0%	54.8%
Brazil	1978	18.7%	27.1%	54.2%
Netherlands	1944	22.7%	28.0%	49.4%
Germany	1939	23.3%	28.1%	48.6%
Norway	1914	26.5%	28.5%	45.0%
Croatia	1912	26.8%	28.5%	44.7%
Japan	1910	27.0%	28.6%	44.4%

Turkey vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Turkey in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Uruguay	1870	32.5%	28.9%	38.5%
Denmark	1869	32.6%	29.0%	38.4%
Italy	1869	32.6%	29.0%	38.4%
Switzerland	1865	33.2%	29.0%	37.8%
Senegal	1860	33.9%	29.0%	37.1%
Morocco	1840	36.8%	29.0%	34.2%
Australia	1839	36.9%	29.0%	34.1%
Austria	1830	38.3%	29.0%	32.8%
Scotland	1794	43.5%	28.6%	27.8%
South Korea	1786	44.7%	28.5%	26.8%