New Zealand

New Zealand holds a World Football Elo rating of 1578, ranking #70 of 244 national teams — a solid mid-tier side. At the 2026 World Cup, New Zealand is drawn in Group G, facing Iran, Egypt and Belgium. The tables below estimate New Zealand's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup

Group G fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-15	Iran	13.7%	25.5%	60.8%	Los Angeles (neutral)
06-21	Egypt	18.3%	27.0%	54.8%	Vancouver (neutral)
06-26	Belgium	5.0%	20.0%	75.0%	Vancouver (neutral)

New Zealand vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	0.0%	8.0%	92.0%
Argentina	2115	0.0%	8.7%	91.3%
France	2063	0.2%	11.1%	88.7%
England	2024	0.7%	12.9%	86.4%
Portugal	1989	1.3%	14.6%	84.1%
Colombia	1982	1.5%	14.9%	83.6%
Brazil	1978	1.5%	15.1%	83.4%
Netherlands	1944	2.5%	16.8%	80.8%
Germany	1939	2.6%	17.0%	80.4%
Norway	1914	3.5%	18.3%	78.2%
Croatia	1912	3.6%	18.4%	78.0%
Japan	1910	3.6%	18.5%	77.9%

New Zealand vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near New Zealand in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Northern Ireland	1605	31.7%	28.9%	39.4%
Saudi Arabia	1598	32.6%	29.0%	38.4%
North Macedonia	1589	33.9%	29.0%	37.1%
Mali	1588	34.1%	29.0%	36.9%
Tunisia	1585	34.5%	29.0%	36.5%
Honduras	1570	36.7%	29.0%	34.4%
Iceland	1568	36.9%	29.0%	34.1%
Angola	1542	40.7%	28.8%	30.4%
United Arab Emirates	1540	41.0%	28.8%	30.1%
Finland	1536	41.6%	28.8%	29.6%