Sweden

Sweden holds a World Football Elo rating of 1755, ranking #35 of 244 national teams — a strong national team. At the 2026 World Cup, Sweden is drawn in Group F, facing Tunisia, Netherlands and Japan. The tables below estimate Sweden's win, draw, and loss probabilities using the same Elo model as the main calculator.

Sweden at the 2026 World Cup

Group F fixtures with win/draw/loss estimates.

Kickoff	Opponent	Win	Draw	Loss	Venue
06-14	Tunisia	59.8%	25.8%	14.4%	Monterrey (neutral)
06-20	Netherlands	12.7%	25.1%	62.3%	Houston (neutral)
06-25	Japan	15.9%	26.3%	57.8%	Dallas (neutral)

Sweden vs the world's best

Estimated result at a neutral venue against the current top-rated teams.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Spain	2129	2.2%	16.4%	81.4%
Argentina	2115	2.6%	17.1%	80.3%
France	2063	4.7%	19.7%	75.6%
England	2024	6.7%	21.6%	71.7%
Portugal	1989	9.0%	23.2%	67.8%
Colombia	1982	9.6%	23.5%	66.9%
Brazil	1978	9.9%	23.7%	66.5%
Netherlands	1944	12.7%	25.1%	62.3%
Germany	1939	13.1%	25.3%	61.6%
Norway	1914	15.5%	26.2%	58.3%
Croatia	1912	15.7%	26.2%	58.1%
Japan	1910	15.9%	26.3%	57.8%

Sweden vs similar-ranked teams

Closely-matched opponents near Sweden in the rankings.

Opponent	Elo	Win	Draw	Loss
Algeria	1772	33.1%	29.0%	38.0%
Russia	1772	33.1%	29.0%	38.0%
Canada	1767	33.8%	29.0%	37.2%
Nigeria	1767	33.8%	29.0%	37.2%
Iran	1756	35.4%	29.0%	35.6%
Greece	1744	37.1%	29.0%	33.9%
Ivory Coast	1743	37.2%	29.0%	33.8%
Serbia	1734	38.5%	28.9%	32.5%
Venezuela	1733	38.7%	28.9%	32.4%
Panama	1730	39.1%	28.9%	31.9%